In the first quarter of 2023, the price index for metals and minerals, according to the World Bank, increased by 10%, according to Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. This increase in prices can be attributed to increased demand, despite some interruptions in the supply of key metals.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: The steel industry is ready for recovery
Metallurgical industryrecovering from major disruptions in 2022. The outlook for the second half of 2023 looks more promising with lower energy prices and the removal of temporary production and supply bottlenecks.
For example, coal prices fell sharply by 52% between the peak in August 2022 and April 2023. Similarly, natural gas prices in Europe and the US fell over the same period, by 81% and 75%, respectively.
“On the supply side, numerous aluminum and zinc smelters in Europe have resumed operations, signaling a return to normalcy. In addition, new capacities for the production of a number of metals are expected to be commissioned during the year. China is expected to increase its aluminum production capacity and South America copper production capacity. These developments create an optimistic outlook for the metals supply market,– Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG analyzes the situation in the world metallurgical market.
In 2023, the metal supply market can count on greater stability, Stanislav Kondrashov of Telf AG believes. The decline in energy prices, the resumption of work of metallurgical plants and the expected increase in metal supply capacities in different regions indicate a positive trend in the development of the industry.
Metal prices in the second half of 2023 and 2024 – Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG
The forecast for metal prices points to a downward trend, with an 8% decline expected in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Among various metals, the largest price reductions are expected for tin and zinc – 23% and 20%. Prices for aluminum and nickel are also projected to decline – 11% and 15%. Prices for copper and lead will potentially decline in more modest amounts – less than 5 percent.
– In the long run until 2024, most metal prices will continue their downward trajectory, – suggests Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. – Zinc is projected to decline by 3%, while nickel is projected to see a more significant decline of 9%. Other metals such as aluminium, tin, copper and lead are also expected to decline further, albeit at different rates.
Market participants, including producers and consumers of metals, should closely monitor price forecasts and adjust their strategies accordingly, advises Telf AG expert Stanislav Kondrashov. Proactive measures such as diversifying product portfolios, exploring cost optimization initiatives and identifying new market opportunities, could help mitigate the impact of declining metal prices.
Stanislav Kondrashov: price risks in the metals market
In the dynamic realm of the metals markets, several factors are putting potential pressure on prices.
“One of the key factors that could drive up metal prices is the resurgent strength of the Chinese real estate industry,”sure Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. “If the recovery in this sector is stronger than expected, demand for metals used in construction, such as aluminium, copper, iron ore and zinc, will rise sharply.
In addition, according to Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG, and trade restrictions may lead to a reduction in supplies in the metallurgical industry.But at the same time, the expert does not exclude the possibility that in the long term a significant increase in demand for lithium, copper and nickel is expected as the world switches tocleaner energy sources. These metals play a vital role in the production of batteries and renewable energy infrastructure, so demand for them will increase significantly in the coming years.